In a few weeks, the Bitcoin and Ethereum bearruns will unfortunately celebrate their first year. Whether it likes it or not, they logically reflect the acceleration of monetary tightening by central banks following inflationary pressures, which themselves are not diminishing in intensity. This currently encourages investors to remain cautious vis-à-vis the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity.
Although the top two cryptocurrencies persist in not breaking their respective supports, the buyers are failing to gain the upper hand over the sellers given the multitude of current uncertainties in the financial markets. Besides, the good news that we must content ourselves, are not enough to satisfy new technical rebounds that could possibly push back the expiry of their bear markets.
Let’s see now the latest technical analysis of BTC and ETH for this week which promises to be tense.
Bitcoin – Still in Weinstein Phase 4 despite a possible favorable technical signal
As usual since mid-September (or even since mid-June), Bitcoin has been hovering around $20,000. Symbolically and technically, the buyers know that it is a capital support to hope to slow down its bear market. Except that the latest price movements show us a feverishness of all market players. The latter find themselves disoriented as the market context deteriorates.
Despite the possibility of seeing a BTC price crossing beyond the descending line, Weinstein’s phase 4 is still relevant. On the one hand, we still have lower highs and lower lows since its last ATH in November 2021. And on the other hand, the 30-week moving average (weekly 30MM) is moving significantly lower, despite the summer bullish correction.
Assuming a throwback to $20,000 with price crossing above the descending line would occur, heading towards the resistance of $26,000 would risk confronting the downward sloping weekly 30MM simultaneously. Especially since we have a previous end of March with the resistance of $46,000. The failure below that earlier level had precipitated a loss of more than 60% of Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency.
Conversely, the breakout of $20,000 would confirm a third wave of correction towards $12,000. And the least we can say is that it would not be a scandal in itself. With the fundamental and technical elements that we have to put in our mouths to date.
Ethereum – Prices Around 2018 ATH
If it can comfort many cryptocurrency investors, Ethereum has not returned to its lows of the year. And for good reason, it is around the 2018 ATH. However, the new upward momentum is slow to come, even though we escaped a bearish crossover in the MACD in weekly units.
Like Bitcoin, Weinstein’s phase 4 could still play tricks on him in the near future. Indeed, the MM30 weekly preserves its bearish momentum. Worse still, it evolves parallel to the descending line. This would attest to the robustness of the selling pressure. With hindsight, the last two outbursts above the $1700 resistance turned out to be false buy signals.
Therefore, buyers who have been burned by these previous episodes, would not want to come forward until there is a clear and clear clearer about the current uncertainties in the financial markets. In this sense, the hypothesis of seeing ETH prices descend towards its lows of the year, not far from the support of $1000, would come back at a gallop. On the sine qua non condition that sellers would rely on well-founded catalysts.
Hoping to postpone the recovery of its bear market since its last ATH in November 2021, a return above $1400 would make it possible to afford a third attempt to cross $1700, which would soon be close to the descending line. However, the weekly MM30 could act as resistance if Ethereum tries to escape a major level from its latest bullrun.
BTC and ETH – Never fight against the trend
Unable to achieve new high points than the previous ones this year, the Bitcoin and Ethereum bear markets continue to get bogged down, despite an extended truce at the start of this fall. Hence the importance that cryptocurrency investors should not go against the trend or else leave feathers. Just because BTC and ETH have fallen dramatically doesn’t mean it would be a bargain buying opportunity.
Not only the harm is greater than we thought because the FED is fighting inflation not seen in four decades. Which, de facto, would force it to accelerate its monetary tightening. And it doesn’t matter that sooner or later it would cause a recession. But to make matters worse, the US central bank has no control over external factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the energy crisis.
In any case, clouds would still be gathering on the horizon for Bitcoin and Ethereum. And as long as the strong dollar factor remains untouched, new year lows against them could materialize. So much so that we would respect the tradition of previous cryptocurrency bear markets. In which case, it would be possible to find a BTC and an ETH in four and three digits respectively.
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