Last week, we mentioned that sellers might be in doubt. Indeed, it is clear that Bitcoin has been hovering around $20,000 since mid-September. And it is not for nothing that it is at the level of the ATH of 2017. By now, many investors would cross their fingers for a favorable outcome as the bear market since the last ATH in November 2021 is slow to regain its rights.
The latest technical analysis gives the feeling that the buyers are trying to resist. So far, the latest BTC price bounce attempts have been aborted. And in the wake of the latest US employment numbers, will Bitcoin still navigate a tidy narrow or get out?
Bitcoin – New chorus around $20,000
This week’s bullish candle allows Bitcoin to approach the descending line of its bear market. Especially since the technical indicators are progressing towards their respective waterlines. Nevertheless, these favorable technical signals remain timid so that sellers would lurk at the slightest grain of sand.
Because precisely, the prices evolve in a tidy tight since mid-September around the $20,000 support. This is unfortunately explained by the absence of positive catalysts, which themselves would help to remove a good part of the current uncertainties on the financial markets. Even now, we have nothing to put in our mouths.
And even if BTC prices were to rebound by breaking through the descending line, one would have to pay attention to the harsh reality of Weinstein’s Phase 4. With a 30-week moving average (weekly 30MM) which remains firmly on a bearish trajectory. In the near future, it could act as resistance against a favorable trend reversal.
Either way, there would still be We have our work cut out for all the losses stored up from last spring’s wave of corrections.
Bitcoin – Crossing the descending line in sight?
In daily units, we feel Bitcoin is taking a nap around the $20,000 support. So much so that buyers neutralize sellers or vice versa. On the side of the MACD and the RSI, they are trying painfully to stay above the zero line and the neutral zone at 50 respectively.
Besides, the need for both technical indicators to hold this course, could contribute to a throwback to $20,000. And cause and effect, BTC prices would have chances to cross the descending line. Provided they break out above the $22,000 resistance.
Afterwards, the buyers would attack the resistance at $26,000, not far from the 200-day moving average (MM200 daily). But the latter could play the spoilsports in the perspective of a rebound of greater magnitude. And assuming that Bitcoin prices would go back above this average which is sailing on a downward slope, caution would be in order with the possibility of a false buy signal.
Finally, assuming the opposite scenario, a dry break of $20,000 as was the case with $35,000, would cause its bear market to resume and new lows for the year to materialize. Thereby, the sellers would eventually target the support of $12,000 with the possibility of pushing prices towards the $16,000 support first.
BTC – A bear market that is still marking time. But Bitcoin remains under pressure!
As long as the current uncertainties in the financial markets do not diminish, Bitcoin will still remain under threat of new lows for the year. But the absence of negative catalysts, both endogenously and exogenously, could leave prices in this tidy very narrow since mid-September. As such, its bear market since its last ATH in November 2021 would stall longer than expected.
From there to find grounds for relief, it would already be necessary to correct upwards a good part of the previous wave of correction. Unfortunately, BTC prices did not outline encouraging technical signals in the medium-long term. And as we mentioned on the last technical analyses, crossing the descending line may not be enough to materialize the beginning of a trend reversal. Especially since the prices would still be below the MM30 weekly and MM200 daily.
Not only would the strength of the US dollar against major currencies not falter until proven otherwise. But to make matters worse, the recent cut in oil production quotas by OPEC would not make the Fed’s business any easier. In this sense, a return of the price of oil to around $100 would force it to raise key rates even further. With an inflation level that is already high.
Therefore, continued monetary tightening by the US central bank as it currently stands, would still be a headwind for risky asset classes. And until there’s an inflection about it, Bitcoin would see its upside potential limited. With the fear that the rebounds would be sold in a sluggish market environment.
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